MI-10 House 2026

The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.

LiveHeld by Republicans · projected flip to Dem·$937 traded / 24h·10 contracts·5 exchanges·Margin rank 22 of 435
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
34.3Lean D · ▼ 0.7 14d
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
34.3
enters as 34.3
Democrats win
65.7
enters as 100 − 65.7 = 34.3

Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.

Control of the House

Does MI-10 decide the House?

No single seat does on today’s prices.
MI-10 is one of the 37 contested seats. Democrats already have 226 seats rated safe or likely, 8 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Full House picture
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 10

Sorted by weight

Will Democratic win the House race for MI-10? - Christina Hines65.0Kalshi ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 35.0weight 58.8%Will Republican win the House race for MI-10? - Michael Bouchard Jr.35.0Kalshi ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 35.0weight 32.1%Will the Republican Party win the MI-10 House seat?33.0Polymarket ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 33.0weight 6.3%Will the Democratic Party win the MI-10 House seat?66.5Polymarket ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 33.5weight 2.7%Michigan-10 House Winner - Mike Bouchard35.0Gemini ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 35.0weight 0.0%Michigan-10 House Winner - Christina Hines68.0Gemini ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 32.0weight 0.0%
Show all 10 contracts
Weights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 34.3 · rows open on the exchange
Other Michigan races this cycle

Also on the ballot