MS-04 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
95.7
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
95.7enters as 95.7
Democrats win
4.3enters as 100 − 4.3 = 95.7
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does MS-04 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe R, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 173 rated safe or likely, 45 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 7
Sorted by weight
MS-04 General Election — Jeffrey Hulum5.0MS-04 General Election — Mike Ezell96.0Will Democratic win the House race for MS-04? - Jeffrey Hulum III4.8Will Republican win the House race for MS-04? - Mike Ezell95.6Will Mike Ezell win the Mississippi 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?86.0Will the Republican Party win the MS-04 House seat?95.6
Show all 7 contracts
See every contract behind this seat
Free with a Micah account: each contract, its exchange and its weight in the seat reading.
Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 95.7 · rows open on the exchange
Other Mississippi races this cycle