Mississippi Senate 2026

The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.

LiveHeld by Republicans · projected hold·$162K traded / 24h·13 contracts·6 exchanges·Margin rank 11 of 35
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
88.2Likely R · ▼ 3.9 14d
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
88.2
enters as 88.2
Democrats win
11.8
enters as 100 − 11.8 = 88.2

Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.

Control of the Senate

Does Mississippi decide the Senate?

No. It is rated Likely R, outside the 7 contested seats.
Control turns on the 7 contested seats. The seat that tips control is Texas at 34.2.
Full Senate picture
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 13

Sorted by weight

Will Democratics win the Senate race in Mississippi? - Scott Colom11.0Kalshi ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 89.0weight 44.3%Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?13.5Polymarket ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 86.5weight 23.3%Will Republicans win the Senate race in Mississippi? - Cindy Hyde-Smith89.0Kalshi ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 89.0weight 18.0%Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?86.5Polymarket ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 86.5weight 14.2%Will Scott Colom win the Mississippi general election for US Senate in 2026?12.0ForecastEx ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 88.0weight 0.1%Mississippi US Senate Winner - Ty Pinkins4.0Gemini ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 96.0weight 0.0%
Show all 13 contracts
Weights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 88.2 · rows open on the exchange
Other Mississippi races this cycle

The closest House seats