MT-02 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
96.9
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
96.9enters as 96.9
Democrats win
3.1enters as 100 − 3.1 = 96.9
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does MT-02 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe R, outside the 39 contested seats.
Democrats already have 224 seats rated safe or likely, 6 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 9
Sorted by weight
Will Democratic win the House race for MT-02? - Brian Miller3.7Will the Republican Party win the MT-02 House seat?97.5Will Republican win the House race for MT-02? - Troy Downing96.7Will the Democratic Party win the MT-02 House seat?2.5MT-02 General Election — Brian Miller4.0MT-02 General Election — Sam Lux4.0
Show all 9 contracts
MT-02 General Election — Troy Downing92.0Will Sam Lux win the Montana 2nd District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?11.0Will Troy Downing win the Montana 2nd District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?92.0
See every contract behind this seat
Free with a Micah account: each contract, its exchange and its weight in the seat reading.
Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 96.9 · rows open on the exchange
Other Montana races this cycle