NC-03 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
64.5
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
64.5enters as 64.5
Democrats win
35.5enters as 100 − 35.5 = 64.5
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does NC-03 decide the House?
No single seat does on today’s prices.
NC-03 is one of the 37 contested seats. Democrats already have 226 seats rated safe or likely, 8 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 10
Sorted by weight
Will Republican win the House race for NC-03? - Greg Murphy65.0Will Democratic win the House race for NC-03? - Raymond Smith Jr.35.0Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?36.5Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?63.5Will Raymond Smith Jr. win the North Carolina 3rd District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?33.0North Carolina-03 House Winner - Raymond Smith39.0
Show all 10 contracts
North Carolina-03 House Winner - Greg Murphy66.0NC-03 General Election — Raymond Smith Jr.34.0NC-03 General Election — Gregory Murphy75.0Will Gregory Murphy win the North Carolina 3rd District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?75.0
See every contract behind this seat
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 64.5 · rows open on the exchange
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