NM-01 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
3.9
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
3.9enters as 3.9
Democrats win
96.1enters as 100 − 96.1 = 3.9
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does NM-01 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe D, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 173 rated safe or likely, 45 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 10
Sorted by weight
Will Republican win the House race for NM-01? - Didi Okpareke4.2New Mexico-01 House Winner - Ndidiamaka Okpareke6.0New Mexico-01 House Winner - Melanie Stansbury96.0NM-01 General Election — Ndidiamaka Okpareke7.0NM-01 General Election — Melanie Ann Stansbury90.0Will Ndidiamaka Okpareke win the New Mexico 1st District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?7.0
Show all 10 contracts
Will Melanie Ann Stansbury win the New Mexico 1st District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?90.0Will Democratic win the House race for NM-01? - Melanie Stansbury96.4Will the Republican Party win the NM-01 House seat?3.9Will the Democratic Party win the NM-01 House seat?95.8
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 3.9 · rows open on the exchange
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