New Mexico Senate 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
2.9
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
2.9enters as 2.9
Democrats win
97.1enters as 100 − 97.1 = 2.9
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the Senate
Does New Mexico decide the Senate?
No. It is rated Safe D, outside the 7 contested seats.
Control turns on the 7 contested seats. The seat that tips control is Texas at 34.2.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 12
Sorted by weight
Will Democratics win the Senate race in New Mexico? - Ben Ray Luján97.4Will the Republicans win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026?2.4New Mexico Senate General Election — Matt Dodson4.0New Mexico Senate General Election — Larry Marker5.0New Mexico Senate General Election — Ben Ray Lujan97.5New Mexico US Senate Winner - Larry Marker5.0
Show all 12 contracts
New Mexico US Senate Winner - Ben Ray Lujan99.0Will Republicans win the Senate race in New Mexico? - Larry E. Marker3.2Will the Democratic party win the New Mexico general election for US Senate in 2026?89.0Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in New Mexico? - Republican (Marker)4.0Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in New Mexico? - Democratic (Luján)97.0Will the Democrats win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026?98.1
See every contract behind this seat
Free with a Micah account: each contract, its exchange and its weight in the seat reading.
Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 2.9 · rows open on the exchange
Other New Mexico races this cycle