NM-03 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
4.6
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
4.6enters as 4.6
Democrats win
95.4enters as 100 − 95.4 = 4.6
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does NM-03 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe D, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 173 rated safe or likely, 45 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 10
Sorted by weight
Will Republican win the House race for NM-03? - Martin Zamora5.0Will the Republican Party win the NM-03 House seat?3.5New Mexico-03 House Winner - Martin Zamora7.0New Mexico-03 House Winner - Teresa Leger Fernandez97.0NM-03 General Election — Martin Zamora10.0NM-03 General Election — Teresa Leger Fernandez91.0
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Will Martin Zamora win the New Mexico 3rd District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?10.0Will Teresa Leger Fernandez win the New Mexico 3rd District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?91.0Will Democratic win the House race for NM-03? - Teresa Leger Fernández94.5Will the Democratic Party win the NM-03 House seat?96.0
See every contract behind this seat
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 4.6 · rows open on the exchange
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