TX-09 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
77.7
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
77.7enters as 77.7
Democrats win
22.3enters as 100 − 22.3 = 77.7
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does TX-09 decide the House?
No. It is rated Likely R, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 226 seats rated safe or likely, 8 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 10
Sorted by weight
Will Republican win the House race for TX-09? - Alex Mealer78.0Will Democratic win the House race for TX-09? - Leticia Gutierrez22.0Will the Republican Party win the TX-09 House seat?77.5Will Alex Mealer win the Texas 9th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?76.0Will the Democratic Party win the TX-09 House seat?22.5Texas-09 House Winner - Alexandra Mealer80.0
Show all 10 contracts
Texas-09 House Winner - Leticia Gutierrez24.0TX-09 General Election — Leticia Gutierrez23.5TX-09 General Election — Alex Mealer77.5Will Leticia Gutierrez win the Texas 9th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?23.0
See every contract behind this seat
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 77.7 · rows open on the exchange
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