NY-03 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
10.9
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
10.9enters as 10.9
Democrats win
89.1enters as 100 − 89.1 = 10.9
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does NY-03 decide the House?
No. It is rated Likely D, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 173 rated safe or likely, 45 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 12
Sorted by weight
Will a Republican win the House race for NY-3? - Mike LiPetri12.0Will a Democrat win the House race for NY-3? - Tom Suozzi90.2Will the Democratic Party win the NY-03 House seat?89.0Will the Republican Party win the NY-03 House seat?10.5New York-03 House Winner - Mike LiPetri13.0New York-03 House Winner - Tom Suozzi92.0
Show all 12 contracts
NY-03 General Election — Mike LiPetri9.0NY-03 General Election — Mike LiPetri7.0NY-03 General Election — Tom Suozzi91.0Will Tom Suozzi win the New York 3rd District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?85.0Will Mike LiPetri win the New York 3rd District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?11.0Will Mike LiPetri win the New York 3rd District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?14.0
See every contract behind this seat
Free with a Micah account: each contract, its exchange and its weight in the seat reading.
Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 10.9 · rows open on the exchange
Other New York races this cycle