NY-04 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
8.5
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
8.5enters as 8.5
Democrats win
91.5enters as 100 − 91.5 = 8.5
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does NY-04 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe D, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 173 rated safe or likely, 45 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 12
Sorted by weight
Will the Republican Party win the NY-04 House seat?8.2Will Republican win the House race for NY-4? - Jeanine Driscoll8.6Will Democratic win the House race for NY-4? - Laura Gillen91.9New York-04 House Winner - Jeanine Driscoll9.0New York-04 House Winner - Laura Gillen94.0NY-04 General Election — Anthony D'Esposito2.5
Show all 12 contracts
NY-04 General Election — Jeanine Driscoll10.0NY-04 General Election — Laura Gillen88.0Will Jeanine Driscoll win the New York 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?10.0Will Laura Gillen win the New York 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?88.0Will Anthony D'Esposito win the New York 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?11.0Will the Democratic Party win the NY-04 House seat?90.5
See every contract behind this seat
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 8.5 · rows open on the exchange
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