NE-02 House 2026

The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.

LiveHeld by Republicans · projected flip to Dem·$573 traded / 24h·12 contracts·5 exchanges·Margin rank 95 of 435
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
8.5Safe D · ▲ 2.7 14d
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
8.5
enters as 8.5
Democrats win
91.5
enters as 100 − 91.5 = 8.5

Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.

Control of the House

Does NE-02 decide the House?

No. It is rated Safe D, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 173 rated safe or likely, 45 short of 218.
Full House picture
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 12

Sorted by weight

Will Democratic win the House race for NE-2? - Denise Powell91.7Kalshi ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 8.3weight 67.1%Will Republican win the House race for NE-2? - Brinker Harding8.7Kalshi ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 8.7weight 23.9%Will the Republican Party win the NE-02 House seat?7.2Polymarket ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 7.3weight 9.0%NE-02 General Election — John Cavanaugh3.0IBKR ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 97.0weight 0.0%NE-02 General Election — Brinker Harding8.0IBKR ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 8.0weight 0.0%NE-02 General Election — Denise Powell89.0IBKR ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 11.0weight 0.0%
Show all 12 contracts
Weights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 8.5 · rows open on the exchange
Other Nebraska races this cycle

Also on the ballot