NY-17 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
41.9
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
41.9enters as 41.9
Democrats win
58.1enters as 100 − 58.1 = 41.9
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does NY-17 decide the House?
No single seat does on today’s prices.
NY-17 is one of the 37 contested seats. Democrats already have 226 seats rated safe or likely, 8 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 10
Sorted by weight
Will Republican win the House race for NY-17? - Mike Lawler41.0Will Democratic win the House race for NY-17? - Cait Conley57.0Will the Democratic Party win the NY-17 House seat?57.5Will the Republican Party win the NY-17 House seat?40.0Will Cait Conley win the New York 17th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?62.0New York-17 House Winner - Mike Lawler44.0
Show all 10 contracts
New York-17 House Winner - Cait Conley60.0NY-17 General Election — Mike Lawler38.0NY-17 General Election — Cait Conley62.5Will Mike Lawler win the New York 17th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?35.0
See every contract behind this seat
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 41.9 · rows open on the exchange
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