PA-01 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
55.7
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
55.7enters as 55.7
Democrats win
44.3enters as 100 − 44.3 = 55.7
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does PA-01 decide the House?
No single seat does on today’s prices.
PA-01 is one of the 37 contested seats. Democrats already have 226 seats rated safe or likely, 8 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 8
Sorted by weight
Will Democratic win the House race for PA-1? - Bob Harvie44.0Will the Democratic Party win the PA-01 House seat?45.0Will Republican win the House race for PA-1? - Brian Fitzpatrick56.0Will the Republican Party win the PA-01 House seat?55.5PA-01 General Election — Bob Harvie40.5PA-01 General Election — Brian Fitzpatrick59.5
Show all 8 contracts
Will Bob Harvie win the Pennsylvania 1st District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?40.0Will Brian Fitzpatrick win the Pennsylvania 1st District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?60.0
See every contract behind this seat
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 55.7 · rows open on the exchange
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