TX-22 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
95.7
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
95.7enters as 95.7
Democrats win
4.3enters as 100 − 4.3 = 95.7
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does TX-22 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe R, outside the 39 contested seats.
Democrats already have 224 seats rated safe or likely, 6 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 8
Sorted by weight
Will the Republican Party win the TX-22 House seat?94.5Will the Democratic Party win the TX-22 House seat?3.2Will Trever Nehls win the Texas 22nd District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?90.0TX-22 General Election — Marquette Greene-Scott10.0TX-22 General Election — Trever Nehls90.0Will Marquette Greene-Scott win the Texas 22nd District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?10.0
Show all 8 contracts
Will Democratic win the House race for TX-22? - Marquette Greene-Scott3.4Will Republican win the House race for TX-22? - Trever Nehls94.7
See every contract behind this seat
Free with a Micah account: each contract, its exchange and its weight in the seat reading.
Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 95.7 · rows open on the exchange
Other Texas races this cycle