OK-04 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
95.8
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
95.8enters as 95.8
Democrats win
4.2enters as 100 − 4.2 = 95.8
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does OK-04 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe R, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 226 seats rated safe or likely, 8 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 7
Sorted by weight
OK-04 General Election — Mitchell Jacob4.0OK-04 General Election — Tom Cole93.0Will Democratic win the House race for OK-04? - Mitchell Jacob3.6Will Republican win the House race for OK-04? - Tom Cole96.7Will Tom Cole win the Oklahoma 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?93.0Will the Republican Party win the OK-04 House seat?96.4
Show all 7 contracts
See every contract behind this seat
Free with a Micah account: each contract, its exchange and its weight in the seat reading.
Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 95.8 · rows open on the exchange
Other Oklahoma races this cycle