PA-07 House 2026

The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.

LiveHeld by Republicans · projected flip to Dem·$639 traded / 24h·12 contracts·5 exchanges·Margin rank 74 of 435
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
13.2Likely D · ▲ 0.7 14d
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
13.2
enters as 13.2
Democrats win
86.8
enters as 100 − 86.8 = 13.2

Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.

Control of the House

Does PA-07 decide the House?

No. It is rated Likely D, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 173 rated safe or likely, 45 short of 218.
Full House picture
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 12

Sorted by weight

Will Republican win the House race for PA-7? - Ryan Mackenzie13.0Kalshi ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 13.0weight 57.8%Will Democratic win the House race for PA-7? - Bob Brooks87.0Kalshi ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 13.0weight 39.8%Will the Democratic Party win the PA-07 House seat?85.5Polymarket ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 14.5weight 2.4%Pennsylvania-07 House Winner - Ryan Mackenzie15.0Gemini ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 15.0weight 0.0%Pennsylvania-07 House Winner - Bob Brooks90.0Gemini ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 90.0weight 0.0%PA-07 General Election — Ryan Crosswell4.0IBKR ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 4.0weight 0.0%
Show all 12 contracts
Weights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 13.2 · rows open on the exchange
Other Pennsylvania races this cycle

Also on the ballot