SC-01 House 2026

The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.

LiveHeld by Republicans · projected hold·$975 traded / 24h·12 contracts·5 exchanges·Margin rank 12 of 435
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
61.3Lean R · ▼ 9.1 14d
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
61.3
enters as 61.3
Democrats win
38.7
enters as 100 − 38.7 = 61.3

Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.

Control of the House

Does SC-01 decide the House?

No single seat does on today’s prices.
SC-01 is one of the 37 contested seats. Democrats already have 226 seats rated safe or likely, 8 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Full House picture
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 12

Sorted by weight

Will the Republican Party win the SC-01 House seat?59.5Polymarket ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 59.5weight 34.8%Will Democratic win the House race for SC-01? - Nancy S. Lacore39.0Kalshi ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 61.0weight 29.3%Will Republican win the House race for SC-01? - Jenny Costa Honeycutt62.0Kalshi ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 62.0weight 26.3%Will the Democratic Party win the SC-01 House seat?40.5Polymarket ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 59.5weight 9.6%South Carolina-01 House Winner - Nancy Lacore40.0Gemini ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 60.0weight 0.0%South Carolina-01 House Winner - Jenny Costa Honeycutt66.0Gemini ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 34.0weight 0.0%
Show all 12 contracts
Weights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 61.3 · rows open on the exchange
Other South Carolina races this cycle

Also on the ballot