VA-01 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
38.2
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
38.2enters as 38.2
Democrats win
61.8enters as 100 − 61.8 = 38.2
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does VA-01 decide the House?
No single seat does on today’s prices.
VA-01 is one of the 37 contested seats. Democrats already have 226 seats rated safe or likely, 8 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 10
Sorted by weight
Will Democratic win the House race for VA-1? - Shannon Taylor62.0Will the Democratic Party win the VA-01 House seat?64.0Will Republican win the House race for VA-1? - Rob Wittman39.0Will the Republican Party win the VA-01 House seat?36.5Virginia-01 House Winner - Rob Wittman40.0Virginia-01 House Winner - Shannon Taylor63.0
Show all 10 contracts
VA-01 General Election — Shannon Taylor59.5VA-01 General Election — Rob Wittman40.5Will Shannon Taylor win the Virginia 1st District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?60.0Will Rob Wittman win the Virginia 1st District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?40.0
See every contract behind this seat
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 38.2 · rows open on the exchange
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