TX-18 House 2026

The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.

LiveHeld by Democrats · projected hold·$36 traded / 24h·10 contracts·4 exchanges·Margin rank 401 of 435
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
1.8Safe D · ▼ 20.0 14d
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
1.8
enters as 1.8
Democrats win
98.3
enters as 100 − 98.3 = 1.8

Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.

Control of the House

Does TX-18 decide the House?

No. It is rated Safe D, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 226 seats rated safe or likely, 8 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Full House picture
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 10

Sorted by weight

Will the Republican Party win the TX-18 House seat?1.3Polymarket ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 1.3weight 100.0%TX-18 General Election — Al Green2.5IBKR ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 97.5weight 0.0%TX-18 General Election — Ronald Whitfield4.0IBKR ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 4.0weight 0.0%TX-18 General Election — Christian Menefee95.0IBKR ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 5.0weight 0.0%Will Democratic win the House race for TX-18? - Christian Menefee97.4Kalshi ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 2.6weight 0.0%Will Republican win the House race for TX-18? - Ronald Whitfield3.4Kalshi ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 3.4weight 0.0%
Show all 10 contracts
Weights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 1.8 · rows open on the exchange
Other Texas races this cycle

Also on the ballot