Texas Senate 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
34.3
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
34.3enters as 34.3
Democrats win
65.7enters as 100 − 65.7 = 34.3
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the Senate
Does Texas decide the Senate?
Yes. Texas is the seat that tips control.
Democrats need 4 of the 7 contested seats and Republicans need 4. Ranked by price, Texas is the 4th seat for Democrats and the 4th for Republicans, so whichever party wins it is on course for the majority if the other contested seats go as priced.
MOST LIKELY DEMOCRATICSEAT PMI
Alaska27.4Michigan31.4Ohio32.1TexasTIPS CONTROL34.3
Maine38.2Iowa58.3Kansas60.3MOST LIKELY REPUBLICAN
Democrats need 51 seats, Republicans 50 (the Republican Vice President breaks ties). Democrats count from the top, Republicans from the bottom.
Full Senate pictureContracts behind this reading · 6 of 15
Sorted by weight
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas? - Ken Paxton35.0Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas? - James Talarico66.0Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?32.5Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?65.1Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?67.5Will my Democrats win Texas Senate election? Market have 350 traders before 7pm est election day 2026?99.0
Show all 15 contracts
Texas US Senate Winner - Ken Paxton35.0Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?64.7Texas US Senate Winner - James Talarico68.0Texas Senate General Election — John Cornyn2.5Texas Senate General Election — Ken Paxton34.5Texas Senate General Election — James Talarico65.5Will the Democratic party win the Texas general election for US Senate in 2026?25.0Will the Republican party win the Texas general election for US Senate in 2026?76.0Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Texas? - Republican (Paxton)37.0
See every contract behind this seat
Free with a Micah account: each contract, its exchange and its weight in the seat reading.
Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 34.3 · ◦ play money · rows open on the exchange
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