Texas Governor 2026

The chance this race goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.

LiveHeld by Republicans · projected hold·$705K traded / 24h·14 contracts·7 exchanges·Margin rank 2 of 36
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
67.4Lean R · ▼ 12.1 14d
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
67.4
enters as 67.4
Democrats win
32.6
enters as 100 − 32.6 = 67.4

Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.

Other 2026 races

Also on the ballot in Texas

Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 14

Sorted by weight

Will the Republican party win the governorship in Texas - Greg Abbott67.0Kalshi ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 67.0weight 71.1%Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Texas - Gina Hinojosa32.0Kalshi ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 68.0weight 18.4%Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?65.8Polymarket ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 65.8weight 6.2%Will Democrats win the Texas Gubernatorial election?35.2Manifold ◦ ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 64.8weight 2.5%Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?34.5Polymarket ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 65.5weight 1.8%Texas Governor Winner - Greg Abbott72.0Gemini ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 72.0weight 0.0%
Show all 14 contracts
Weights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 67.4 · ◦ play money · rows open on the exchange
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