VA-09 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
96.9
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
96.9enters as 96.9
Democrats win
3.1enters as 100 − 3.1 = 96.9
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does VA-09 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe R, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 173 rated safe or likely, 45 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 7
Sorted by weight
Will Democratic win the House race for VA-09? - Joy Powers4.8Will Republican win the House race for VA-09? - Morgan Griffith95.7VA-09 General Election — Joy Powers5.0VA-09 General Election — Morgan Griffith90.0Will Morgan Griffith win the Virginia 9th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?91.0Will the Republican Party win the VA-09 House seat?96.7
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 96.9 · rows open on the exchange
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