West Virginia Senate 2026

The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.

LiveHeld by Republicans · projected hold·$4K traded / 24h·16 contracts·6 exchanges·Margin rank 26 of 35
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
97.7Safe R · ▼ 0.8 14d
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
97.7
enters as 97.7
Democrats win
2.3
enters as 100 − 2.3 = 97.7

Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.

Control of the Senate

Does West Virginia decide the Senate?

No. It is rated Safe R, outside the 7 contested seats.
Control turns on the 7 contested seats. The seat that tips control is Texas at 34.3.
Full Senate picture
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 16

Sorted by weight

Will Democratics win the Senate race in West Virginia? - Rachel Fetty Anderson2.6Kalshi ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 97.4weight 50.6%Will the Democrats win the West Virginia Senate race in 2026?2.1Polymarket ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 97.9weight 24.0%Will Republicans win the Senate race in West Virginia? - Shelley Moore Capito97.9Kalshi ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 97.9weight 14.4%Will the Republicans win the West Virginia Senate race in 2026?98.0Polymarket ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 98.0weight 11.0%West Virginia US Senate Winner - Rachel Anderson4.0Gemini ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 96.0weight 0.0%West Virginia US Senate Winner - Shelley Moore Capito96.0Gemini ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 96.0weight 0.0%
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Weights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 97.7 · rows open on the exchange
Other West Virginia races this cycle

The closest House seats