Will Saudi Arabia and the Houthis escalate their conflict?
Facing contract: Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 27?
One question, with every dated and reworded contract that asks it. 6 contracts on 2 exchanges are folded here; the deepest book sets the price.
LIVE$23K TRADED / 24H·6 CONTRACTS·2 EXCHANGES·SAUDI ARABIA
What the market prices
75%implied chance this resolves yes
0 · WON’T HAPPEN50100 · CERTAIN
30-day range · Polymarket
30d low 16.0 · Oct 130d high 75.5 · Oct 27
Where the books disagree
2 exchanges, 70.0 points apart
The books are 70.0 points apart on this question — wide enough to be worth a look, though the thinner side may not fill at size.
CONTRACTEXCHANGEYES
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31? ↗Facing book · 95% of the fold · $22K / 24hPolymarket25%Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 27? ↗3% of the fold · $610 / 24hPolymarket75%Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by November 30? ↗2% of the fold · $423 / 24hPolymarket32%Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31? ↗1% of the fold · $202 / 24hPolymarket4.5%Houthi military action against Mecca by December 31, 2026? ↗0% of the fold · $0 / 24hPolymarket6.9%Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement before November 1? ↗Play money · not weighted · Ṁ2K / 24hManifold10%Other questions on Saudi Arabia
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