FL-25 House 2026

The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.

LiveHeld by Democrats · projected hold·$29K traded / 24h·10 contracts·4 exchanges·Margin rank 41 of 435
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
24.1Likely D · ▲ 0.5 14d
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
24.1
enters as 24.1
Democrats win
76.0
enters as 100 − 76.0 = 24.1

Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.

Control of the House

Does FL-25 decide the House?

No. It is rated Likely D, outside the 39 contested seats.
Democrats already have 224 seats rated safe or likely, 6 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Full House picture
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 10

Sorted by weight

Will Republican win the House race for FL-25? - Scott Singer24.0Kalshi ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 24.0weight 81.3%Will Democratic win the House race for FL-25? - Jared Moskowitz76.0Kalshi ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 24.0weight 9.1%Will the Republican Party win the FL-25 House seat?24.0Polymarket ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 24.0weight 6.6%Will the Democratic Party win the FL-25 House seat?75.0Polymarket ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 25.0weight 3.0%FL-25 General Election — Michael Carbonara2.0IBKR ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 2.0weight 0.0%FL-25 General Election — Debbie Wasserman Schultz2.0IBKR ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 98.0weight 0.0%
Show all 10 contracts
Weights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 24.1 · rows open on the exchange
Other Florida races this cycle

Also on the ballot