GA-09 House 2026

The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.

LiveHeld by Republicans · projected hold·$122 traded / 24h·10 contracts·4 exchanges·Margin rank 227 of 435
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
96.3Safe R · ▼ 0.4 14d
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
96.3
enters as 96.3
Democrats win
3.7
enters as 100 − 3.7 = 96.3

Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.

Control of the House

Does GA-09 decide the House?

No. It is rated Safe R, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 225 seats rated safe or likely, 7 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 173 rated safe or likely, 45 short of 218.
Full House picture
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 10

Sorted by weight

Will Republican win the House race for GA-09? - Andrew Clyde97.1Kalshi ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 97.1weight 52.5%Will the Republican Party win the GA-09 House seat?96.7Polymarket ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 96.7weight 47.5%GA-09 General Election — Nick Alex4.0IBKR ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 4.0weight 0.0%GA-09 General Election — Caitlyn Gegen3.0IBKR ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 97.0weight 0.0%GA-09 General Election — Andrew Clyde96.0IBKR ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 96.0weight 0.0%Will Caitlyn Gegen win the Georgia 9th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?3.0ForecastEx ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 3.0weight 0.0%
Show all 10 contracts
Weights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 96.3 · rows open on the exchange
Other Georgia races this cycle

Also on the ballot