KS-04 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
96.8
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
96.8enters as 96.8
Democrats win
3.2enters as 100 − 3.2 = 96.8
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does KS-04 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe R, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 226 seats rated safe or likely, 8 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 9
Sorted by weight
KS-04 General Election — Chris Carmichael3.0KS-04 General Election — Katy Tyndell9.0KS-04 General Election — Ron Estes89.0Will Democratic win the House race for KS-04? - Katy Tyndell4.7Will Republican win the House race for KS-04? - Ron Estes96.7Will Chris Carmichael win the Kansas 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?6.0
Show all 9 contracts
Will Ron Estes win the Kansas 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?89.0Will the Republican Party win the KS-04 House seat?95.7Will the Democratic Party win the KS-04 House seat?3.5
See every contract behind this seat
Free with a Micah account: each contract, its exchange and its weight in the seat reading.
Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 96.8 · rows open on the exchange
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