Kansas Senate 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
59.7
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
59.7enters as 59.7
Democrats win
40.3enters as 100 − 40.3 = 59.7
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the Senate
Does Kansas decide the Senate?
Not by itself. It is inside the Republicans’ path.
Republicans need 4 of the 7 contested seats; Kansas is priced as their 1st most likely win. The seat that tips control is Texas at 34.4.
MOST LIKELY DEMOCRATICSEAT PMI
Alaska27.4Michigan31.5Ohio32.2TexasTIPS CONTROL34.4Maine40.0Iowa59.4Kansas59.7
MOST LIKELY REPUBLICAN
Democrats need 51 seats, Republicans 50 (the Republican Vice President breaks ties). Democrats count from the top, Republicans from the bottom.
Full Senate pictureContracts behind this reading · 6 of 12
Sorted by weight
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Kansas? - Roger Marshall59.0Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?38.5Will Democratics win the Senate race in Kansas? - Adam Hamilton41.0Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?61.5Kansas US Senate Winner - Adam Hamilton43.0Kansas US Senate Winner - Roger Marshall67.0
Show all 12 contracts
Will Adam Hamilton win the Kansas general election for US Senate in 2026?41.0Kansas Senate General Election — Adam Hamilton39.0Kansas Senate General Election — Roger Marshall62.5Will Roger Marshall win the Kansas general election for US Senate in 2026?63.0Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Kansas? - Dems (Hamilton)41.0Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Kansas? - GOP (Marshall)60.0
See every contract behind this seat
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 59.7 · rows open on the exchange
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