MI-09 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
96.4
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
96.4enters as 96.4
Democrats win
3.6enters as 100 − 3.6 = 96.4
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does MI-09 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe R, outside the 37 contested seats.
Democrats already have 226 seats rated safe or likely, 8 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 7
Sorted by weight
MI-09 General Election — Ray Pooley6.0MI-09 General Election — Lisa McClain90.0Will Democratic win the House race for MI-09? - Ray Pooley4.9Will Republican win the House race for MI-09? - Lisa McClain96.2Will Lisa McClain win the Michigan 9th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?90.0Will the Republican Party win the MI-09 House seat?96.0
Show all 7 contracts
See every contract behind this seat
Free with a Micah account: each contract, its exchange and its weight in the seat reading.
Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 96.4 · rows open on the exchange
Other Michigan races this cycle