Nebraska Senate 2026

The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.

LiveHeld by Republicans · projected hold·$71K traded / 24h·13 contracts·7 exchanges·Margin rank 10 of 35
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
86.3Likely R · ▼ 0.6 14d
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
86.3
enters as 86.3
Democrats win
13.8
enters as 100 − 13.8 = 86.3

Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.

Control of the Senate

Does Nebraska decide the Senate?

No. It is rated Likely R, outside the 7 contested seats.
Control turns on the 7 contested seats. The seat that tips control is Texas at 34.4.
Full Senate picture
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 13

Sorted by weight

Will Republicans win the Senate race in Nebraska? - Pete Ricketts73.0Kalshi ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 73.0weight 57.2%Will Democratics win the Senate race in Nebraska? - Cindy Burbank0.4Kalshi ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 99.6weight 26.8%Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?72.0Polymarket ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 72.0weight 10.9%Will Dan Osborn be elected to Nebraska's US Senate seat in 2026?29.0Manifold ◦ ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 29.0weight 5.1%Nebraska US Senate Winner - Mike Marvin4.0Gemini ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 4.0weight 0.0%Nebraska US Senate Winner - Dan Osborn31.0Gemini ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 31.0weight 0.0%
Show all 13 contracts
Weights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 86.3 · ◦ play money · rows open on the exchange
Other Nebraska races this cycle

Also on the ballot