TX-04 House 2026
The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
96.0
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
96.0enters as 96.0
Democrats win
4.0enters as 100 − 4.0 = 96.0
Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.
Control of the House
Does TX-04 decide the House?
No. It is rated Safe R, outside the 39 contested seats.
Democrats already have 224 seats rated safe or likely, 6 past the 218 majority; Republicans have 172 rated safe or likely, 46 short of 218.
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 10
Sorted by weight
TX-04 General Election — Jason Pearce7.0TX-04 General Election — Pat Fallon91.0Will Jason Pearce win the Texas 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?7.0Will Don Horn win the Texas 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?7.0Will Andrew Rubell win the Texas 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?7.0Will Pat Fallon win the Texas 4th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?91.0
Show all 10 contracts
Will Democratic win the House race for TX-04? - Jason Pearce3.8Will Republican win the House race for TX-04? - Pat Fallon95.8Will the Republican Party win the TX-04 House seat?96.2Will the Democratic Party win the TX-04 House seat?3.5
See every contract behind this seat
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Sign in free with GoogleWeights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 96.0 · rows open on the exchange
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