Nevada Governor 2026

The chance this race goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.

LiveHeld by Republicans · projected flip to Dem·$301K traded / 24h·12 contracts·6 exchanges·Margin rank 4 of 36
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
26.6Lean D · ▼ 21.6 14d
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
26.6
enters as 26.6
Democrats win
73.4
enters as 100 − 73.4 = 26.6

Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.

Other 2026 races

Also on the ballot in Nevada

Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 12

Sorted by weight

Will the Republican party win the governorship in Nevada - Joe Lombardo26.0Kalshi ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 26.0weight 42.8%Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Nevada - Aaron Ford75.0Kalshi ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 25.0weight 33.1%Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?25.5Polymarket ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 25.5weight 14.5%Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?75.0Polymarket ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 25.0weight 9.3%Will Joe Lombardo win the Nevada general election for Governor in 2026?30.0ForecastEx ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 30.0weight 0.1%Will Aaron Ford win the Nevada general election for Governor in 2026?70.0ForecastEx ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 30.0weight 0.1%
Show all 12 contracts
Weights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 26.6 · rows open on the exchange
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