Cuba
Armed-conflict risk on Cuba, priced from live prediction-market contracts and weighted by the money behind each one into a single PMIPrediction Market Index: a 0–100 reading of what traders are paying on live contracts, weighted by the money behind each one., which rolls up into Americas and the world reading.
LIVE$26K TRADED / 24H·6 CONTRACTS·2 EXCHANGES·AMERICAS·AS OF OCT 27, 17:56 UTC
8.8Calm risk · 26th of 36 countries
▼ 0.9 24h · ▲ 1.1 7d
▼ 0.9 24h · ▲ 1.1 7d
Cuba reading · Sep 27 – Oct 27
Sep 27Oct 27
14.330D HIGH
6.630D LOW
▼ 3.930D CHANGE
✦ ASK ABOUT CUBA
Why did Cuba rise this week?What traders are pricing · top 5 of 6 by volume
The five contracts that move Cuba
Right-hand figure: share of today’s real-money volume. Rows open on the exchange.
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?6%US strike on Cuba by December 31?9%US x Cuba military clash in 2026?16%Will the United States conduct a military strike against Cuba in 2026?19%Military conflict between the US and Cuba before 2028?74%
These 5 are 100% of today's volume. 2 of the 6 trade under $5K a day, so one trade can move them.
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