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Venezuela
Market-implied armed-conflict heat for this country, with the contributing prediction-market contracts.
44.2
PMIWhat PMI meansPMI is the index's own 0–100 score — NOT the probability of a market's wording. Every contract is oriented to the index's theme, so a “below / no / peace” market shows a HIGH PMI when that outcome is unlikely. 100 = markets fully back the index's direction, 50 = balanced, 0 = the opposite.
CalmConflict
7
Contracts
2
Prediction Market Exchanges
7
PMI Holdings
PMI Holdings
Exchanges
7.0PMI
Will Venezuela enter a new hot war with anyone by the end of 2026?Manifold
$14.0k
6.4PMI
Will another country support Venezuela militarily?Manifold
$1.1k
75.0PMI
Will the United States attack Venezuela during 2026?Metaculus
$592
22.5PMI
Will the US have 5 consecutive days of active military operations in Venezuela at any point in 2026?Manifold
$501
53.0PMI
Will there be a civil war in Venezuela before 2050?Metaculus
$67
95.0PMI
If Venezuela invades Guyana before 2030, will the United States respond with military forces?Metaculus
$63
20.0PMI
If Venezuela invades Guyana before 2030, will Brazil respond with military forces?Metaculus
$34