Mexico
Armed-conflict risk on Mexico, priced from live prediction-market contracts and weighted by the money behind each one into a single PMIPrediction Market Index: a 0–100 reading of what traders are paying on live contracts, weighted by the money behind each one., which rolls up into Americas and the world reading.
LIVE$917 TRADED / 24H·4 CONTRACTS·2 EXCHANGES·AMERICAS·AS OF OCT 27, 17:57 UTC
1.7Calm risk · 34th of 36 countries · thin book
— 24h · — 7d
— 24h · — 7d
Mexico reading · Sep 27 – Oct 27
Sep 27Oct 27
9.730D HIGH
1.530D LOW
▼ 5.730D CHANGE
✦ ASK ABOUT MEXICO
What is driving Mexico's reading?What traders are pricing
The contracts that move Mexico
Right-hand figure: share of today’s real-money volume. Rows open on the exchange.
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?2%US and Mexico engage in armed conflict before January 20, 202913%US Strike on Mexico by EOY2026?5%US strike on Mexico by December 31?4%
4 contracts carry all of today's volume. 2 of the 4 trade under $5K a day, so one trade can move them.
OTHER COUNTRIES IN AMERICAS
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