++++
Mexico
Market-implied armed-conflict heat for this country, with the contributing prediction-market contracts.
9.2
PMIWhat PMI meansPMI is the index's own 0–100 score — NOT the probability of a market's wording. Every contract is oriented to the index's theme, so a “below / no / peace” market shows a HIGH PMI when that outcome is unlikely. 100 = markets fully back the index's direction, 50 = balanced, 0 = the opposite.
CalmConflict
6
Contracts
3
Prediction Market Exchanges
6
PMI Holdings
PMI Holdings
Exchanges
12.5PMI
US and Mexico engage in armed conflict before January 20, 2029Manifold
$4.7k
1.3PMI
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?Polymarket
$868
22.7PMI
US Strike on Mexico by EOY2026?Manifold
$592
9.0PMI
US strike on Mexico by December 31?Polymarket
$188
4.0PMI
Will the USA invade Mexico and acknowledge that invasion before January 20, 2029?Metaculus
$63
20.0PMI
Will the US deploy military forces in Mexico without the cooperation of the Mexican government before 2029?Metaculus
$51