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Americas Conflict Index

Regional armed-conflict heat — a GDP/population-weighted mean over the region's full country roster (absent countries count as 0).

19.4
PMIWhat PMI meansPMI is the index's own 0–100 score — NOT the probability of a market's wording. Every contract is oriented to the index's theme, so a “below / no / peace” market shows a HIGH PMI when that outcome is unlikely. 100 = markets fully back the index's direction, 50 = balanced, 0 = the opposite.
CalmConflict
120
Contracts
3ManifoldMetaculusPolymarket
Prediction Market Exchanges
120
PMI Holdings
Region conflict map

Countries

57.5PMI

Guyana Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Guyana, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

americas
2 Contracts
44.2PMI

Venezuela Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Venezuela, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

americas
7 Contracts
25.5PMI

United States Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in United States, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

americas
112 Contracts
17.9PMI

Brazil Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Brazil, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

americas
3 Contracts
13.0PMI

Cuba Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Cuba, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

americas
6 Contracts
11.2PMI

Panama Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Panama, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

americas
2 Contracts
9.6PMI

Canada Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Canada, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

americas
4 Contracts
9.2PMI

Mexico Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Mexico, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

americas
6 Contracts
2.1PMI

Colombia Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Colombia, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

americas
2 Contracts