Could a direct war between Israel and Iran trigger a global conflict?
One question, with every dated and reworded contract that asks it. Only one exchange lists it today.
LIVE1 CONTRACT·1 EXCHANGE·IRAN
What the market prices
18%implied chance this resolves yes
0 · WON’T HAPPEN50100 · CERTAIN
30-day range · Manifold
30d low 18.3 · Sep 2730d high 18.3 · Sep 27
Where the books disagree
One exchange, one price
Only Manifold lists this question, so there is no cross-exchange read to compare. If another exchange lists the same question, it joins this page rather than appearing separately.
Other questions on Iran
Also priced on Iran
Will Israel and Iran maintain a ceasefire by November 1st?95%Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?18%Will the US and Iran achieve a lasting resolution?45%Will the U.S. use a nuclear weapon against Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain between November 4 and November 10, 2026?2.6%Will there be a separate, second ceasefire in the America / Iran war in 2026?68%us nukes Iran in 20262.7%