++++
Iran
Market-implied armed-conflict heat for this country, with the contributing prediction-market contracts.
39.6
PMIWhat PMI meansPMI is the index's own 0–100 score — NOT the probability of a market's wording. Every contract is oriented to the index's theme, so a “below / no / peace” market shows a HIGH PMI when that outcome is unlikely. 100 = markets fully back the index's direction, 50 = balanced, 0 = the opposite.
CalmConflict
74
Contracts
3
Prediction Market Exchanges
74
PMI Holdings
PMI Holdings
Exchanges
16.0PMI
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Polymarket
$283.5k
58.0PMI
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
$35.0k
6.0PMI
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
$23.4k
12.0PMI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Polymarket
$21.8k
7.0PMI
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Polymarket
$20.4k
97.7PMI
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?Polymarket
$16.7k
84.5PMI
Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?Manifold
$16.0k
18.3PMI
Could a direct war between Israel and Iran trigger a global conflict?Manifold
$12.3k
67.7PMI
Will there be a separate, second ceasefire in the America / Iran war in 2026?Manifold
$11.8k
73.0PMI
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Polymarket
$11.6k
2.8PMI
us nukes Iran in 2026Manifold
$10.1k
9.0PMI
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
$8.7k
7.0PMI
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Polymarket
$8.0k
7.9PMI
Will the US suffer 1000 confirmed combat deaths in Iran in 2026?Manifold
$5.7k
6.5PMI
Will Iran enrich uranium to weapons grade in 2026?Manifold
$5.4k
9.0PMI
Iran coup attempt by December 31?Polymarket
$5.1k
13.9PMI
Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran pre-emptively nuke Israel?Manifold
$4.3k
23.0PMI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 ? [Not Polymarket]Manifold
$3.6k
26.1PMI
Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran nuke Israel?Manifold
$3.4k
7.0PMI
Will America declare war on Iran before the end of 2026Manifold
$3.0k
12.1PMI
Will the US-Iran war end before the 2026 midterm elections?Manifold
$2.4k
9.3PMI
Will the US or Israel use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?Manifold
$2.3k
88.0PMI
Will Donald Trump order a new U.S. attack on Iran by the end of 2026?Manifold
$1.9k
3.6PMI
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?Polymarket
$1.8k
10.5PMI
Will the US sign a peace agreement based on Iran's 14-point plan before September 30, 2026?Manifold
$1.5k
7.0PMI
Iran blockade lifted before Xi visits US?Polymarket
$1.2k
81.5PMI
Will America lose its war against Iran?Manifold
$1.1k
61.0PMI
Will the US or Israel threaten to use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?Manifold
$913
8.7PMI
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by end of 2026Manifold
$835
24.0PMI
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?Polymarket
$697
71.0PMI
Will the United States lose the war against Iran?Manifold
$641
8.0PMI
Will a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026?Manifold
$640
88.4PMI
Will Iran directly strike a US military base in September 2026?Manifold
$617
11.5PMI
Will Australia get involved in the Iran conflict?Manifold
$448
4.1PMI
Will Iran use Nuclear weapons?Manifold
$441
38.8PMI
Will the next round of US-Iran peace talks result in a cease-fire lasting at least 30 days?Manifold
$413
11.4PMI
Will Iran launch a fatal terrorist attack on U.S. soil by EOY 2026?Manifold
$385
24.3PMI
Will Iran target Qatar by September 30, 2026?Polymarket
$370
5.3PMI
Iran nuclear test before 2027?Polymarket
$308
4.0PMI
Will the United States conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?Metaculus
$307
18.8PMI
Will BBC News report US preparations for possible nuclear weapon use against Iran before 2028?Manifold
$276
40.4PMI
Will the next round of US-Iran peace talks result in a cease-fire lasting at least 30 days?Manifold
$234
1.2PMI
Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?Polymarket
$205
2.0PMI
Will Israel conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?Metaculus
$203
14.0PMI
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?Polymarket
$202
34.2PMI
Will Iran develop a Nuclear Weapon before 2035?Manifold
$181
8.5PMI
Will the US invade Iran's Kharg Island by the end of 2026?Manifold
$166
1.8PMI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?Polymarket
$158
69.0PMI
Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by September 30, 2026?Polymarket
$156
1.0PMI
If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, will the US control Tehran within one year?Metaculus
$149
0.1PMI
Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2027?Metaculus
$142
2.3PMI
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
$134
93.0PMI
Will Iran target Jordan by October 31, 2026?Polymarket
$132
27.4PMI
Will Iran sign a peace deal with the middle east countriesManifold
$125
40.0PMI
Will any gulf-state make a side-deal with Iran to avoid further attacks?Manifold
$99
8.4PMI
Will Iran target Oman by September 30, 2026?Polymarket
$86
28.0PMI
Will both the House and Senate pass a resolution to limit military action in Iran?Manifold
$83
30.0PMI
Will Trump bypass the US Congress and declare war on Iran before January 20, 2029?Metaculus
$81
53.8PMI
Will the US or Israel strike Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site before Oct 1, 2027?Manifold
$73
12.0PMI
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
$41
55.0PMI
Will Iran target Kuwait by September 15, 2026?Polymarket
$40
8.0PMI
Will a European country take military action on Iran by December 31?Polymarket
$40
20.0PMI
Will state-based conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?Metaculus
$37
8.3PMI
Will Iran target Syria by September 30, 2026?Polymarket
$30
20.0PMI
Will state-based conflict between Iran and Azerbaijan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?Metaculus
$24
0.6PMI
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?Polymarket
$18
24.3PMI
Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by September 30, 2026?Polymarket
$17
78.2PMI
Will Iran target Bahrain by September 30, 2026?Polymarket
$11
0.3PMI
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?Polymarket
$8
5.0PMI
Iran invades Kuwait by December 31?Polymarket
$0
94.0PMI
Will Iran target an Arab country by October 31, 2026?Polymarket
$0
4.3PMI
Will Iran target Egypt by September 30, 2026?Polymarket
$0
0.0PMI
Will Iran target Iraq by September 15, 2026?Polymarket
$0
1.5PMI
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?Polymarket
$0