Iran
Armed-conflict risk on Iran, priced from live prediction-market contracts and weighted by the money behind each one into a single PMIPrediction Market Index: a 0–100 reading of what traders are paying on live contracts, weighted by the money behind each one., which rolls up into Middle East and the world reading.
LIVE$420K TRADED / 24H·72 CONTRACTS·2 EXCHANGES·MIDDLE EAST·AS OF OCT 27, 17:57 UTC
22.7Low risk · 13th of 36 countries
▼ 1.3 24h · ▼ 9.7 7d
▼ 1.3 24h · ▼ 9.7 7d
Iran reading · Sep 27 – Oct 27
Sep 27Oct 27
50.830D HIGH
19.130D LOW
▼ 16.230D CHANGE
✦ ASK ABOUT IRAN
Why did Iran cool this week?What traders are pricing · top 5 of 72 by volume
The five contracts that move Iran
Right-hand figure: share of today’s real-money volume. Rows open on the exchange.
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?95%Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?18%US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?91%US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?45%US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?22%
These 5 are 98% of today's volume. 30 of the 72 trade under $5K a day, so one trade can move them.
OTHER COUNTRIES IN MIDDLE EAST
Gaza 93.0 ›Saudi Arabia 55.2 ›Syria 42.9 ›Lebanon 41.7 ›United Arab Emirates 37.6 ›Iraq 34.8 ›Yemen 21.1 ›Israel 19.7 ›Oman 15.5 ›Jordan 15.3 ›Bahrain 11.0 ›Kuwait 9.5 ›Qatar 4.0 ›
Back to Middle East