Will the U.S. use a nuclear weapon against Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain between November 4 and November 10, 2026?
One question, with every dated and reworded contract that asks it. Only one exchange lists it today.
LIVE1 CONTRACT·1 EXCHANGE·IRAN
What the market prices
2.6%implied chance this resolves yes
0 · WON’T HAPPEN50100 · CERTAIN
30-day range · Manifold
30d low 2.6 · Oct 330d high 59.0 · Oct 2
Where the books disagree
One exchange, one price
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