Wisconsin Governor 2026

The chance this race goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.

LiveHeld by Democrats · projected hold·$68K traded / 24h·19 contracts·7 exchanges·Margin rank 8 of 36
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
20.3Likely D · ▲ 0.8 14d
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
20.3
enters as 20.3
Democrats win
79.7
enters as 100 − 79.7 = 20.3

Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.

Other 2026 races

Also on the ballot in Wisconsin

Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 19

Sorted by weight

Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?80.0Manifold ◦ ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 20.0weight 64.8%Will the Republican party win the governorship in Wisconsin - Tom Tiffany22.0Kalshi ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 22.0weight 16.9%Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?80.5Polymarket ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 19.5weight 9.0%Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?19.5Polymarket ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 19.5weight 4.6%Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Wisconsin - David Crowley79.0Kalshi ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 21.0weight 3.0%Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election?80.0Manifold ◦ ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 20.0weight 1.3%
Show all 19 contracts
Will Tom Tiffany win the Wisconsin general election for Governor in 2026?22.0ForecastEx ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 22.0weight 0.2%Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin general election for Governor in 2026?78.0ForecastEx ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 22.0weight 0.1%Wisconsin Governor Winner - Tom Tiffany24.0Gemini ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 24.0weight 0.1%Wisconsin Governor General Election — David Crowley77.5IBKR ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 22.5weight 0.0%Wisconsin Governor Winner - Joel Brennan2.0Gemini ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 98.0weight 0.0%Wisconsin Governor Winner - Kelda Roys2.0Gemini ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 98.0weight 0.0%Wisconsin Governor Winner - Sara Rodriguez2.0Gemini ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 98.0weight 0.0%Wisconsin Governor Winner - Mandela Barnes2.0Gemini ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 98.0weight 0.0%Wisconsin Governor Winner - David Crowley81.0Gemini ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 19.0weight 0.0%Wisconsin Governor Winner - Andrew Manske20.0Gemini ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 80.0weight 0.0%Wisconsin Governor Winner - Francesca Hong65.0Gemini ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 35.0weight 0.0%Which party will win the 2026 election for governor of Wisconsin? - Republican (Tiffany)18.0PredictIt ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 18.0weight 0.0%Which party will win the 2026 election for governor of Wisconsin? - Democratic (Crowley)80.0PredictIt ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 20.0weight 0.0%
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Weights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 20.3 · ◦ play money · rows open on the exchange
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