New Hampshire Senate 2026

The chance this seat goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.

LiveHeld by Democrats · projected hold·$68K traded / 24h·11 contracts·6 exchanges·Margin rank 13 of 35
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
10.1Likely D · ▼ 1.0 14d
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
10.1
enters as 10.1
Democrats win
89.9
enters as 100 − 89.9 = 10.1

Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.

Control of the Senate

Does New Hampshire decide the Senate?

No. It is rated Likely D, outside the 7 contested seats.
Control turns on the 7 contested seats. The seat that tips control is Texas at 34.2.
Full Senate picture
Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 11

Sorted by weight

Will Democratics win the Senate race in New Hampshire? - Chris Pappas90.0Kalshi ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 10.0weight 49.4%Will Republicans win the Senate race in New Hampshire? - John E. Sununu11.0Kalshi ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 11.0weight 25.4%Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?91.5Polymarket ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 8.5weight 12.8%Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?8.5Polymarket ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 8.5weight 11.7%New Hampshire US Senate Winner - John E. Sununu13.0Gemini ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 13.0weight 0.7%New Hampshire US Senate Winner - Chris Pappas92.0Gemini ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 8.0weight 0.0%
Show all 11 contracts
Weights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 10.1 · rows open on the exchange
Other New Hampshire races this cycle

Also on the ballot