++++
Ukraine
Market-implied armed-conflict heat for this country, with the contributing prediction-market contracts.
56.5
PMIWhat PMI meansPMI is the index's own 0–100 score — NOT the probability of a market's wording. Every contract is oriented to the index's theme, so a “below / no / peace” market shows a HIGH PMI when that outcome is unlikely. 100 = markets fully back the index's direction, 50 = balanced, 0 = the opposite.
CalmConflict
44
Contracts
3
Prediction Market Exchanges
44
PMI Holdings
PMI Holdings
Exchanges
11.5PMI
[ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?Manifold
$18.4k
8.7PMI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2026?Manifold
$13.9k
71.0PMI
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
$9.2k
54.4PMI
Will Russia launch a RS-26 Rubezh missile at Ukraine before January 20, 2029?Manifold
$7.0k
13.0PMI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
$4.2k
19.9PMI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by Dec 31? [Polymarket]Manifold
$2.7k
61.9PMI
Will there be ceasefires in the Ukraine/Russia and Israel/Hamas wars during the Trump presidency?Manifold
$2.5k
100.0PMI
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 11, 2026?Polymarket
$2.2k
4.8PMI
Will Russia detonate a nuclear device on Ukraine soil by December 31, 2026?Manifold
$1.2k
15.9PMI
Will the Ukraine-Russia war cause a nuclear disaster before 2028?Manifold
$1.0k
9.0PMI
Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?Metaculus
$971
10.0PMI
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?Polymarket
$884
53.7PMI
Will Ukrainian drones hit Kaliningrad before the war is over?Manifold
$737
24.8PMI
Ukraine damages Kremlin with drone or missile before Russia-Ukraine war ends?Manifold
$424
10.0PMI
Ukraine strikes another tanker in the Caspian Sea by September 30, 2026?Polymarket
$369
72.4PMI
Will Ukraine target Moscow by September 15, 2026?Polymarket
$365
8.9PMI
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Polymarket
$359
55.3PMI
Will ballistic missile with range over 500km launched from Ukraine hit any target in Russia in 2026?Manifold
$311
14.0PMI
Mearsheimer prediction: Will Russia attack European countries that are not Ukraine?Manifold
$224
1.2PMI
Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?Polymarket
$205
64.1PMI
Will Ukraine accept a peace deal that cedes contested land in Donetsk and/or Luhansk?Manifold
$199
17.3PMI
Russia and Ukraine reach cease-fire or armistice in 2026?Manifold
$158
7.0PMI
Russia x Ukraine Peace ComboPolymarket
$145
25.0PMI
If Trump is re-elected, will he achieve a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine war during his term?Metaculus
$142
3.0PMI
Will combat troops from NATO countries be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?Metaculus
$135
78.8PMI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?Polymarket
$131
52.0PMI
Will Ukrainian drones hit Kaliningrad before the war is over?Manifold
$96
60.4PMI
Will part of the agreed ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine involve a minimum 10 year block on joining NATO or EU?Manifold
$94
30.0PMI
Will Zelenskyy Swap Territory/Cede Land to End the War?Metaculus
$93
43.4PMI
When violence between Russia and Ukraine formally ends, will Russia attack a non OTAN/NATO neighbour within 2 years?Manifold
$90
37.7PMI
Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian warManifold
$83
33.0PMI
Will part of the agreed ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine involve a minimum 20 year block on joining NATO or EU?Manifold
$47
9.0PMI
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? Polymarket
$39
49.5PMI
Will the US-Russia proxy conflict expand beyond Ukraine and the Middle East by end of 2027?Manifold
$20
7.0PMI
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? Polymarket
$19
35.4PMI
Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?Manifold
$14
3.2PMI
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?Polymarket
$10
8.0PMI
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
$6
3.2PMI
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
$1
4.0PMI
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31?Polymarket
$0
9.0PMI
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?Polymarket
$0
5.5PMI
Ukraine coup attempt by December 31?Polymarket
$0
5.0PMI
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?Polymarket
$0
5.0PMI
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31?Polymarket
$0