Ukraine
Armed-conflict risk on Ukraine, priced from live prediction-market contracts and weighted by the money behind each one into a single PMIPrediction Market Index: a 0–100 reading of what traders are paying on live contracts, weighted by the money behind each one., which rolls up into Europe and the world reading.
LIVE$22K TRADED / 24H·34 CONTRACTS·4 EXCHANGES·EUROPE·AS OF OCT 27, 16:57 UTC
74.5Severe risk · 2nd of 36 countries
▼ 14.9 24h · ▲ 4.8 7d
▼ 14.9 24h · ▲ 4.8 7d
Ukraine reading · Sep 27 – Oct 27
Sep 27Oct 27
92.730D HIGH
58.630D LOW
▲ 15.330D CHANGE
✦ ASK ABOUT UKRAINE
Why did Ukraine rise this week?What traders are pricing · top 5 of 34 by volume
The five contracts that move Ukraine
Right-hand figure: share of today’s real-money volume. Rows open on the exchange.
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?81%Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?10%Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?7%What will Volodymyr Zelenskyy say during Meet the Press originally scheduled for October 18, 2026? - Ceasefire1%Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo4%
These 5 are 88% of today's volume. 18 of the 34 trade under $5K a day, so one trade can move them.
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