Europe
Every country in Europe, weighted by GDP and population, rolled into one PMIPrediction Market Index: a 0–100 reading of what traders are paying on live contracts, weighted by the money behind each one.. Countries with no market count as zero.
LIVE$109K TRADED / 24H·6 OF 52 COUNTRIES PRICED·72 CONTRACTS·4 EXCHANGES·AS OF OCT 27, 16:57 UTC
7.9Europe · 4th of 5 regions
▼ 3.6 24h · ▼ 1.8 7 days
▼ 3.6 24h · ▼ 1.8 7 days
Europe reading · Sep 27 – Oct 27
Sep 27Oct 27
16.130D HIGH
6.130D LOW
0.030D CHANGE
✦ MICAH BRIEF · EUROPEUPDATED 16:57 UTC
Europe reads calm, 4th of 5 regions. Ukraine led the week, up 4.8.
Ukraine rose to 74.5 this week+4.8France cooled to 4.1 this week−21.8
46 of 52 countries have no market—
COLOR = PMI · GRAY = NO MARKET
PMI 0–100
015304560
No market — a coverage gap, not peace
By country · 6 of 52 priced · tap one
Countries ranked by PMI
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COUNTRYPMI24H7D
Ukraine ›34 contracts · $22K74.5−14.9+4.8Russia ›50 contracts · $75K46.1−6.5−1.6Turkey ›THIN4 contracts · $646.9——France ›5 contracts · $30K4.1−29.9−21.8Germany ›THIN2 contracts · $201.3——United Kingdom ›THIN2 contracts · $201.3——Thin = under $10K a day, where one trade can move the price. — = no move recorded for this window.
Contracts to watch · EUROPE
Where the money is
QUESTIONYES24H VOL
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Polymarket · Russia16%$35K[ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?Manifold ◦ · Ukraine7%Ṁ24KWill France declare a state of siege by December 31, 2026?Kalshi, Polymarket · France · 3 contracts1%$21KWill Russia escalate its aggression beyond Ukraine?Polymarket · Russia · 2 contracts4%$21KIf Russia doesn’t agree to the ceasefire, will America provide more assistance to Ukraines war efforts within 90 days? Manifold ◦ · Russia43%Ṁ4KWill Russia attack a NATO member before 2031?Manifold ◦ · Russia · 2 contracts46%Ṁ4KAll 49 questionsA question folds every contract that asks it, across exchanges. 24h vol = real money traded today. ◦ = play money, not counted.