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Home›Global War Index›Europe

Europe Conflict Index

Regional armed-conflict heat — a GDP/population-weighted mean over the region's full country roster (absent countries count as 0).

10.9
PMIWhat PMI meansPMI is the index's own 0–100 score — NOT the probability of a market's wording. Every contract is oriented to the index's theme, so a “below / no / peace” market shows a HIGH PMI when that outcome is unlikely. 100 = markets fully back the index's direction, 50 = balanced, 0 = the opposite.
CalmConflict
98
Contracts
3ManifoldMetaculusPolymarket
Prediction Market Exchanges
96
PMI Holdings
Region conflict map

Countries

56.5PMI

Ukraine Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Ukraine, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

europe
44 Contracts
39.4PMI

Russia Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Russia, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

europe
59 Contracts
20.0PMI

Azerbaijan Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Azerbaijan, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

europe
1 Contracts
15.8PMI

Turkey Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Turkey, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

europe
5 Contracts
14.8PMI

United Kingdom Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in United Kingdom, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

europe
3 Contracts
10.9PMI

France Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in France, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

europe
2 Contracts
10.3PMI

Greenland Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Greenland, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

europe
4 Contracts
8.0PMI

Germany Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Germany, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

europe
1 Contracts
5.3PMI

Greece Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Greece, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

europe
4 Contracts
5.2PMI

Denmark Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Denmark, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

europe
1 Contracts
4.6PMI

Poland Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Poland, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

europe
1 Contracts
4.6PMI

Belarus Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Belarus, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

europe
1 Contracts
3.4PMI

Estonia Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Estonia, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

europe
2 Contracts
2.0PMI

Cyprus Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Cyprus, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

europe
1 Contracts
1.0PMI

Armenia Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Armenia, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

europe
1 Contracts
1.0PMI

Georgia Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Georgia, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

europe
1 Contracts
1.0PMI

Bulgaria Conflict Index

Country

A prediction market index for significant geopolitical or military conflict in Bulgaria, aggregating all related prediction-market contracts into one PMI.

europe
1 Contracts