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Turkey
Market-implied armed-conflict heat for this country, with the contributing prediction-market contracts.
15.8
PMIWhat PMI meansPMI is the index's own 0–100 score — NOT the probability of a market's wording. Every contract is oriented to the index's theme, so a “below / no / peace” market shows a HIGH PMI when that outcome is unlikely. 100 = markets fully back the index's direction, 50 = balanced, 0 = the opposite.
CalmConflict
5
Contracts
3
Prediction Market Exchanges
5
PMI Holdings
PMI Holdings
Exchanges
12.4PMI
100 military deaths in a conflict between Israel and Turkey before 2030?Manifold
$4.9k
14.0PMI
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?Manifold
$694
12.0PMI
Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by October 31, 2026?Polymarket
$80
2.0PMI
Will an armed conflict between Greece and/or Turkey and/or Cyprus cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2035?Metaculus
$56
7.4PMI
Greece x Turkey military engagement by December 31?Polymarket
$2