Turkey
Armed-conflict risk on Turkey, priced from live prediction-market contracts and weighted by the money behind each one into a single PMIPrediction Market Index: a 0–100 reading of what traders are paying on live contracts, weighted by the money behind each one., which rolls up into Europe and the world reading.
LIVE$78 TRADED / 24H·4 CONTRACTS·2 EXCHANGES·EUROPE·AS OF OCT 27, 17:56 UTC
6.9Calm risk · 28th of 36 countries · thin book
— 24h · — 7d
— 24h · — 7d
Turkey reading · Sep 27 – Oct 27
Sep 27Oct 27
95.030D HIGH
0.130D LOW
▼ 9.330D CHANGE
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What is driving Turkey's reading?What traders are pricing
The contracts that move Turkey
Right-hand figure: share of today’s real-money volume. Rows open on the exchange.
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?9%100 military deaths in a conflict between Israel and Turkey before 2030?12%Greece x Turkey military engagement by December 31?10%Turkey military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?1%
4 contracts carry all of today's volume. 3 of the 4 trade under $5K a day, so one trade can move them.
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