Russia
Armed-conflict risk on Russia, priced from live prediction-market contracts and weighted by the money behind each one into a single PMIPrediction Market Index: a 0–100 reading of what traders are paying on live contracts, weighted by the money behind each one., which rolls up into Europe and the world reading.
LIVE$75K TRADED / 24H·50 CONTRACTS·3 EXCHANGES·EUROPE·AS OF OCT 27, 16:57 UTC
46.1Simmering risk · 5th of 36 countries
▼ 6.5 24h · ▼ 1.6 7d
▼ 6.5 24h · ▼ 1.6 7d
Russia reading · Sep 27 – Oct 27
Sep 27Oct 27
76.830D HIGH
34.530D LOW
▲ 1.530D CHANGE
✦ ASK ABOUT RUSSIA
Why did Russia cool this week?What traders are pricing · top 5 of 50 by volume
The five contracts that move Russia
Right-hand figure: share of today’s real-money volume. Rows open on the exchange.
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?16%Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?4%Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?81%Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?10%Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?7%
These 5 are 96% of today's volume. 17 of the 50 trade under $5K a day, so one trade can move them.
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