++++
Russia
Market-implied armed-conflict heat for this country, with the contributing prediction-market contracts.
39.4
PMIWhat PMI meansPMI is the index's own 0–100 score — NOT the probability of a market's wording. Every contract is oriented to the index's theme, so a “below / no / peace” market shows a HIGH PMI when that outcome is unlikely. 100 = markets fully back the index's direction, 50 = balanced, 0 = the opposite.
CalmConflict
59
Contracts
3
Prediction Market Exchanges
59
PMI Holdings
PMI Holdings
Exchanges
8.7PMI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2026?Manifold
$13.9k
71.0PMI
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
$9.2k
18.1PMI
Russia announces new wave of mobilization before November 2026Manifold
$7.1k
54.4PMI
Will Russia launch a RS-26 Rubezh missile at Ukraine before January 20, 2029?Manifold
$7.0k
13.0PMI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
$4.2k
43.0PMI
If Russia doesn’t agree to the ceasefire, will America provide more assistance to Ukraines war efforts within 90 days? Manifold
$4.1k
48.0PMI
Russia attacks a NATO member before 2031?Manifold
$3.6k
1.7PMI
Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before the end of 2026?Manifold
$2.9k
18.3PMI
Will a serious war break out between two of the major military powers (NATO, US, China, Russia, Europe) before 2028?Manifold
$2.8k
19.9PMI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by Dec 31? [Polymarket]Manifold
$2.7k
18.0PMI
Will there be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030?Metaculus
$2.5k
61.9PMI
Will there be ceasefires in the Ukraine/Russia and Israel/Hamas wars during the Trump presidency?Manifold
$2.5k
15.0PMI
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?Polymarket
$2.3k
5.0PMI
Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before the end of 2027?Manifold
$2.2k
100.0PMI
Will Russia target Kyiv on September 11, 2026?Polymarket
$2.2k
30.0PMI
Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?Manifold
$2.1k
6.0PMI
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?Polymarket
$1.7k
8.0PMI
Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2026?Manifold
$1.3k
4.8PMI
Will Russia detonate a nuclear device on Ukraine soil by December 31, 2026?Manifold
$1.2k
4.4PMI
Russia invades Alaska by 2035Manifold
$1.2k
15.9PMI
Will the Ukraine-Russia war cause a nuclear disaster before 2028?Manifold
$1.0k
14.1PMI
Will pro-Russian armed groups take control of a government building in any Baltic city or town by November 30, 2026?Manifold
$971
44.4PMI
Russia attacks NATO by 2030?Manifold
$916
10.0PMI
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?Polymarket
$884
29.6PMI
Will Russia conduct a new wave of public military mobilization before the end of 2026?Manifold
$765
4.6PMI
Will Russia or Belarus attack Poland in the next year?Manifold
$668
13.4PMI
Will the US attack a NATO country before Russia does?Manifold
$430
7.0PMI
Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?Metaculus
$430
24.8PMI
Ukraine damages Kremlin with drone or missile before Russia-Ukraine war ends?Manifold
$424
8.0PMI
Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2027?Manifold
$402
8.2PMI
Will Taurus missiles hit the Kerch bridge before 2027?Manifold
$377
37.8PMI
NATO downs another Russian drone by September 30?Polymarket
$377
7.0PMI
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Polymarket
$370
72.4PMI
Will Ukraine target Moscow by September 15, 2026?Polymarket
$365
10.2PMI
Will Russia shoot down a crewed NATO military aircraft in 2026?Manifold
$364
8.9PMI
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Polymarket
$359
55.3PMI
Will ballistic missile with range over 500km launched from Ukraine hit any target in Russia in 2026?Manifold
$311
3.0PMI
Will Russia annex any part of any Baltic country by 2035?Metaculus
$292
8.0PMI
Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2028?Manifold
$289
10.0PMI
Will Russia order a general mobilization before January 1, 2027?Metaculus
$256
1.3PMI
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?Polymarket
$242
1.0PMI
Will there be a China-Russia war by 2035?Metaculus
$235
14.0PMI
Mearsheimer prediction: Will Russia attack European countries that are not Ukraine?Manifold
$224
3.0PMI
Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?Metaculus
$159
17.3PMI
Russia and Ukraine reach cease-fire or armistice in 2026?Manifold
$158
7.0PMI
Russia x Ukraine Peace ComboPolymarket
$145
78.8PMI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?Polymarket
$131
13.0PMI
Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?Metaculus
$125
29.5PMI
Will Plesetsk cosmodrome got hit with drone/missile by the end of 2026?Manifold
$95
60.4PMI
Will part of the agreed ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine involve a minimum 10 year block on joining NATO or EU?Manifold
$94
43.4PMI
When violence between Russia and Ukraine formally ends, will Russia attack a non OTAN/NATO neighbour within 2 years?Manifold
$90
33.0PMI
Will part of the agreed ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine involve a minimum 20 year block on joining NATO or EU?Manifold
$47
2.5PMI
Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?Metaculus
$35
15.0PMI
Will France and Russia engage in significant direct military conflict before 2031?Metaculus
$23
49.5PMI
Will the US-Russia proxy conflict expand beyond Ukraine and the Middle East by end of 2027?Manifold
$20
4.9PMI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
$8
0.7PMI
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by September 30?Polymarket
$5
5.0PMI
Russia coup attempt in 2026?Polymarket
$4
3.2PMI
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?Polymarket
$1