Germany
Armed-conflict risk on Germany, priced from live prediction-market contracts and weighted by the money behind each one into a single PMIPrediction Market Index: a 0–100 reading of what traders are paying on live contracts, weighted by the money behind each one., which rolls up into Europe and the world reading.
LIVE$20 TRADED / 24H·2 CONTRACTS·2 EXCHANGES·EUROPE·AS OF OCT 27, 17:56 UTC
1.3Calm risk · 35th of 36 countries · thin book
— 24h · — 7d
— 24h · — 7d
Germany reading · Sep 27 – Oct 27
Sep 27Oct 27
8.030D HIGH
0.230D LOW
▼ 1.630D CHANGE
✦ ASK ABOUT GERMANY
What is driving Germany's reading?What traders are pricing
The contracts that move Germany
Right-hand figure: share of today’s real-money volume. Rows open on the exchange.
France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?1%By the end of 2027: Germany will be actively engaged in war or there will be acts of war on German Territory.8%
2 contracts carry all of today's volume. 1 of the 2 trade under $5K a day, so one trade can move them.
OTHER COUNTRIES IN EUROPE
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