Tennessee Governor 2026

The chance this race goes Republican in November, across every listed contract, as a 0–100 chance the Republican wins.

LiveHeld by Republicans · projected hold·$40K traded / 24h·15 contracts·6 exchanges·Margin rank 17 of 36
SEAT PMI · 0–100 · CHANCE REPUBLICANS WIN
93.4Safe R · ▲ 0.5 14d
DEMOCRATEVENREPUBLICAN
Republicans win
93.4
enters as 93.4
Democrats win
6.6
enters as 100 − 6.6 = 93.4

Both legs are aggregated. The Democratic leg is converted as 100 − p, so this seat reads on the same scale as every other.

Other 2026 races

Also on the ballot in Tennessee

Contracts behind this reading · 6 of 15

Sorted by weight

Will the Republican party win the governorship in Tennessee - Marsha Blackburn92.8Kalshi ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 92.8weight 44.3%Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Tennessee - Jerri Green7.0Kalshi ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 93.0weight 43.9%Will the Republicans win the Tennessee governor race in 2026?93.7Polymarket ↗ · Republican leg · enters as 93.7weight 6.4%Will the Democrats win the Tennessee governor race in 2026?5.9Polymarket ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 94.1weight 4.5%Will a Democrat win Tennessee's 2026 governor election?7.0Manifold ◦ ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 93.0weight 0.9%Tennessee Governor General Election — Jerri Green5.0IBKR ↗ · Democratic leg · enters as 95.0weight 0.0%
Show all 15 contracts
Weights are 24h liquidity share · reconciled reading 93.4 · ◦ play money · rows open on the exchange
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