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Micah Insights

ISSUE OF SUN, OCT 4, 2026

One week of prediction-market readings, and what moved them. This is a past issue, kept as published.

Not enough history yet for a lead this week.

WHERE THE EXCHANGES DISAGREE

Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Polymarket 73.0% · Kalshi 73.0% · 0.0 pt gap

Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Polymarket 73.0% · Kalshi 73.0% · 0.0 pt gap

SETTLING THAT WEEK · OCT 4 – OCT 11

Oct 5Israel military action against Lebanon on October 4?Polymarket · Global War Index97%

Oct 5Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 4?Polymarket · Global War Index62%

Oct 5Will Russia target Kyiv on October 4, 2026?Polymarket · Global War Index99%

Oct 5Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 September 28-October 4?Polymarket · Bitcoin Index33%

Oct 5Will Bitcoin dip to $83,000 on October 4?Polymarket · Bitcoin Index6%

Oct 5Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on October 4?Polymarket · Bitcoin Index85%

Oct 5Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 on October 4?Polymarket · Bitcoin Index29%

Oct 5Will the S&P 500 be above 7739.9999 on Oct 5, 2026 at 4pm EDT? - 7,740 or aboveKalshi · S&P 500 Index57%

Oct 5Will the S&P 500 be above 7722.94 on Oct 5, 2026 at 4pm EDT?Kalshi · S&P 500 Index61%

Oct 5Will the S&P 500 be above 7734.9999 on Oct 5, 2026 at 4pm EDT? - 7,735 or aboveKalshi · S&P 500 Index59%

Oct 5Will the S&P 500 be above 7729.9999 on Oct 5, 2026 at 4pm EDT? - 7,730 or aboveKalshi · S&P 500 Index52%

Oct 5S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 5?Polymarket · S&P 500 Index56%

Oct 6Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 5, 2026?Polymarket · Global War Index33%

Oct 6Will Dec-26 S&P 500 Index Futures settle above $7,875 on October 5 2026? (ES) (Stock market) (Wall Street) (Equities) (CME)?ForecastEx · S&P 500 Index10%

Oct 9US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 9?Polymarket · Global War Index97%

Oct 10Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 9?Polymarket · Global War Index96%

Oct 10Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on October 10?Polymarket · Bitcoin Index7%

Oct 10Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on October 10?Polymarket · Bitcoin Index3%

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OTHER ISSUES

This week’s issue Issue of Tue, Oct 27, 2026House–Governor chamber gap 10.3 pts Issue of Sun, Oct 25, 2026House–Governor chamber gap 11.0 pts Issue of Sun, Oct 18, 2026House–Governor chamber gap 10.6 ptsSign in Issue of Sun, Oct 11, 2026Senate–Governor chamber gap 8.2 ptsSign in Issue of Sun, Sep 27, 2026No lead that weekSign in Issue of Sun, Sep 20, 2026No lead that weekSign in Issue of Sun, Sep 13, 2026Senate–Governor chamber gap 11.0 ptsSign in