HOME / INSIGHTS / 2026-W38

Micah Insights

ISSUE OF SUN, SEP 20, 2026

One week of prediction-market readings, and what moved them. This is a past issue, kept as published.

Not enough history yet for a lead this week.

WHERE THE EXCHANGES DISAGREE

No pair cleared the floor this week.

SETTLING THAT WEEK · SEP 20 – SEP 27

Sep 20Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 20?Polymarket · Bitcoin Index99%

Sep 20Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 20?Polymarket · Bitcoin Index100%

Sep 20Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 20?Polymarket · Bitcoin Index84%

Sep 20Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 20?Polymarket · Bitcoin Index100%

Sep 20Will Russia target Kyiv on September 20, 2026?Polymarket · Global War Index86%

Sep 21Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 September 14-20?Polymarket · Bitcoin Index0%

Sep 21Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 September 14-20?Polymarket · Bitcoin Index14%

Sep 21Will the S&P 500 be above 7659.9999 on Sep 21, 2026 at 4pm EDT? - 7,660 or aboveKalshi · S&P 500 Index62%

Sep 21Will the S&P 500 be above 7650.12 on Sep 21, 2026 at 4pm EDT?Kalshi · S&P 500 Index51%

Sep 21Will the S&P 500 be above 7754.9999 on Sep 21, 2026 at 4pm EDT? - 7,755 or aboveKalshi · S&P 500 Index5%

Sep 21S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 21?Polymarket · S&P 500 Index48%

Sep 21Will the S&P 500 be above 7759.9999 on Sep 21, 2026 at 4pm EDT? - 7,760 or aboveKalshi · S&P 500 Index7%

Sep 22Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 22?Polymarket · Global War Index55%

Sep 24Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on September 24?Polymarket · Global War Index64%

Sep 25Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $745 Week of September 21 2026?Polymarket · S&P 500 Index7%

Sep 25Israel military action against Lebanon on September 25?Polymarket · Global War Index94%

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OTHER ISSUES

This week’s issue Issue of Tue, Oct 27, 2026House–Governor chamber gap 10.3 pts Issue of Sun, Oct 25, 2026House–Governor chamber gap 11.0 pts Issue of Sun, Oct 18, 2026House–Governor chamber gap 10.6 ptsSign in Issue of Sun, Oct 11, 2026Senate–Governor chamber gap 8.2 ptsSign in Issue of Sun, Oct 4, 2026No lead that weekSign in Issue of Sun, Sep 27, 2026No lead that weekSign in Issue of Sun, Sep 13, 2026Senate–Governor chamber gap 11.0 ptsSign in